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The English dominance in the Ashes has been mostly down to excellent individual and team performances, but you have to acknowledge that Australian rubbishness has also been a big factor in the margins of victory. The terrific Australian teams of a few years ago seem like a distant memory. Their selectors are not famed for sentiment or for giving a bloke another chance, so it seems likely that Ricky Ponting -- the man who has won 48 Tests as captain, more than anyone else in history -- will be deprived of the role in the next few days.

The only thing that might keep him in place -- for the concluding Sydney match,at least -- is the absence of an obvious successor. Michael Clarke has been being groomed for the Test captaincy for the last few years, and has already taken over in the shorter forms. But his batting form recently has been diabolical -- almost as bad as Ponting's own -- and now the team is in adversity, he doesn't give the impression of the toughness that will be needed to see it through. Plus, he has a problem back, and is likely to miss games injured.

The Test captaincy in Australia is rather different to the English version. They've only had six in my cricket-watching lifetime, going back to the mid 70s -- Ponting, Steve Waugh, Mark Taylor, Allan Border, Kim Hughes, and Greg Chappell. Of those, all but Hughes filled the role for several years. England must have had double the number in that time. You'll also note that all those Australians are batsmen -- even the most talented and thoughtful bowlers have not been entrusted with the captaincy duties.

So who might be a candidate in the current team, if not Clarke? Mike Hussey, Brad Haddin and Simon Katich are reliable and experienced players who are good enough to hold their places in the team, but all are well into their 30s so would only be an interim appointment -- not the Australian style. Also not their style would be the option of bringing in a captain from one of the State teams who's not currently worth a place as a batsman -- even England have done this only rarely.

Shane Watson is perhaps the only other batsman guaranteed a place, but he has shown a disturbing mental fragility. Having passed 50 fifteen times in Tests, he's only gone onto 100 twice. In the four matches of this current rubber, that's been 0 from 4. You would imagine Australia would want to sort that out before entrusting him with further responsibilities.

Is there any chance they might break with tradition and appoint a bowler? Looking over the current crop, only Peter Siddle has really shown the consistent application and spirit. And he does not impress with his acumen.

I guess if it was me I would like to see Haddin (who I think is a very capable and admirable cricketer -- he looks, when playing, as though he could have walked in from an earlier era) given the captaincy for the next couple of years. Or Hussey, if they are unwilling to see a wicket-keeper burdened with the role. And in that time, hope that either Clarke comes good, or Watson matures.

I expect though that they will just name Clarke as planned. In which case, he will have to work really hard to avoid becoming a second Hughes, who eventually resigned in tears at the demands of the job and the poor performance of his side.

Whoever takes over the Australian captaincy, they're due for a lot of losing matches over the next few seasons. Border and Taylor in the past showed they were mentally tough enough to work through the troughs and shepherd a bunch of youngsters onwards towards regeneration. Will the next man be made of the same stuff? It's going to be interesting finding out.

Date: 2010-12-30 11:16 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] undyingking.livejournal.com
Hmm, this has been a bit overtaken by events. We shall see!

Date: 2010-12-30 07:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rotwang.livejournal.com
I think this will give Punter a lifeline - he would really have had to leave if he played and they lost the Sydney test by an innings as well.

Who knows, this opportunity may make Michael Clarke, though I fear it is more likely to break him.

Date: 2010-12-31 10:58 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] undyingking.livejournal.com
Mm, this is it really -- they will have to bring Ponting back if Clarke does badly. OTOH if Clarke does at all well, they can justify then retiring Ponting completely. Quite a gamble.

Date: 2010-12-30 12:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mrlloyd.livejournal.com
I think Ponting's current replacement is just for the fifth test. Which isn't to say the selectors won't pull the trigger afterwards when they've got a bit more time to think.

I think the rebuilding job that's needed with Australia is going to take them four or five years, assuming it goes well. Since, as you note, that's likely to include a lot of losing I think it's a job for an experienced player, someone who simply because they'll be retiring shouldn't expect to hold the job for more than five years.

In support they'll need a young, capable deputy or two, players who can be built up to be long term captains in years to come. They'll also need a squad the selectors are prepared to stick with - the mess that's surrounded their selection of a spinner shows everything that's wrong with the current approach. Instead of constantly sending out inexperienced players they could have a couple of spinners with 10ish tests each under their belt to choose between. They might not be good enough, but at least they'd be better than they are now.

If it wasn't for his abysmal batting performances I'd leave Ponting in, but his batting has been so bad he doesn't justify a place in the first XI at the moment.

Date: 2010-12-31 11:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] undyingking.livejournal.com
I'm interested to see which spinner they pick for Sydney, traditionally the most spin-friendly Australian pitch. Smith has shown that he's not really up to carrying the role himself (also that he may not be up to batting at 6 either, but I suspect they'll have to leave him there faute de mieux) so hopefully Beer will get his delayed callup. I understand he's a lager-than-life character with a good cool head -- hope he's not bitter about being left out at Melbourne.

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