Season in the sun

[undyingking]

So another football season rolls to a close. As is by now traditional, back in August various people predicted who were going to be the Premiership top 5, and whom relegated. Who was rightest? -- or leastest wrongestest?

The predictions:

undyingking:

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Spurs
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal

Rel: Derby, Wigan, Bolton.

dr_bob and also jiggery_pokery:

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal
5. Spurs

Rel: Derby, Birmingham, Wigan.

gbsteve:

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Spurs

Rel: Wigan, Derby, Birmingham.

metame:

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal
5. Spurs

Rel: Sunderland, Derby, Birmingham.

mrlloyd:

1. Man Utd
2. Liverpool
3. Chelsea
4. Arsenal
5. Spurs

Rel: Derby, Birmingham, Sunderland.

ubiquitous_cat:

1. Liverpool
2. Man Utd
3. Chelsea
4. Arsenal
5. Spurs

Rel: Birmingham, Bolton, Derby.

The actual results:

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Everton

with Spurs finishing 11th.
Rel: Derby, Birmingham, Reading.

So using the famous undyingking rank correlation coefficient, the scores are:
gbsteve 2.68
metame, dr_bob, jiggery_pokery 2.76
mrlloyd 2.90
ubuiquitous_cat 3.10
undyingking 3.69

Congrats to new contestant [Bad username or site: gbsteve, @ livejournal.com] who was spot on apart from hopelessly overestimating Spurs like everyone did.

As for the relegation, everyone but me (doh!) got Derby and Birmingham, and no-one got Reading. So we'll call that a 6-way tie.

Reflections:

So the self-perpetuating oligarchy at the top cements itself a bit further. Can you see anyone breaking into the Champions League places, short of via takeover by billionaire? It seems that unless the team can already offer Champions League footbal, they can't attract enough decent players to have a squad strong enough to actually compete for it. Everton have been the nearest consistent challengers over the last few years, but they really don't look all that close. Ten years ago, Arsenal won the league with 78 points -- this season that would have scraped 4th place.

We (West Ham) had a strange sort of season. We started well and by January were pretty much comfortable, but after that we were basically patchy (to be polite) and did just about enough to stay in the top half. It seems churlish to be disappointed with that finish when last year we were almost relegated, but it's more the manner of the weakness in form -- eerily reminiscent of the manager's Charlton teams of yore. With players coming back from injury and Ashton (the English Zidane) at last returning somewhere towards his true quality, we should have been out-competing smaller clubs like Blackburn and Portsmouth, if not nipping at the heels of Villa and Everton.

Over the summer I'd like to see some of the injury-prone dead weight that we panic-signed cleaned out, and if Bellamy isn't going to be fit again (as seems likely) then we need a prolific striker who's either tall, fast or both, to play alongside or in front of Ashton: Zamora and Cole aren't really of Premiership-top-half quality. Peter Crouch would be a good target -- under-played at Liverpool, he's always scored goals when he's been first choice, but would he take a step down as far as us? The fans will demand more next season, even if the biscuit barons who own the club are more patient.

What are you hoping for from your team before next season?

Comments

[gbsteve.livejournal.com]

Hurrah for me and my badusername. Quite the baddest their is.

As for our season, I'm not disappointed, even with the fade. I think the team were basically knackered from all the injuries. What I mainly hope for next season is never to see Boa Morte in a Hammers shirt again. He was dire.

Ashton seems to be going from strength to strenght and has an England call up. So that's probably another injury coming his way. That said, if he does stay fit I think he'd make a great partner for Bellamy. He's a natural target man, good in the air and with a great touch. Bellamy has the speed to take advantage of his lay offs. If he ever plays again.

Sears looks OK too but Tomkins is a bit Ferdinand. Too many mistakes leading to goals at the moment but he might use what experience he gained this season to improve next. Rio certainly improved with age.

We probably need another midfielder to play along side Noble. Solano is getting on a bit and Ljunberg never really delivered.

The defence did well early on but went to pieces in mid season. I'm not quite sure why. They can perform if they want to.

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

Tomkins seems to have the right physical attributes, but he's too young really to have been pitched in like he has been. If Gabbidon or Collins or even Davenport had been fit, he'd have not been under the same pressure.

I still have hopes that Anton will turn into a decent defender, if he can just learn to concentrate better. Maybe Rio can give him some tips.

In the middle, Parker seemed to do a reasonably solid job when he played and he's probably not yet fully fit either. Whether he is really a class act though remains to be seen. Derby's Giles Barnes would be a good signing I think, if he ever recovers -- he could play alongside Noble in a Gerrard-Alonso type pairing.

[mrlloyd.livejournal.com]

Can you see anyone breaking into the Champions League places, short of via takeover by billionaire?

We tried that one. For that matter - aren't West Ham propelled by Icelandic biscuit billions? Man City weren't short of cash this year either...

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

It seems that there's a league table of billionaires too. Ours are small fry compared with the Abramoviches of this world... You ave to be able to say to prospective signings "We're spending 200 million on getting into the Champions League this year. And if it doesn't work, we'll spend another £200 million the following year. "ith no danger of that money ever running out, or me getting bored."

I was a bit worried about City pushing on ahead of us, but it looks like their billionaire is of the interfering and undercutting type, so hopefully that'll all fall apart before they manage to get anywhere.

[jiggery-pokery.livejournal.com]

There's a theory that any of the top four could blow it, even if "doing a Leeds" seems unlikely:

Man U - Sir Alex Ferguson has to retire eventually. Even Sir Bobby Robson did. Real Madrid suffered for three or four seasons due to inconsistent leadership.

Chelsea - Roman could get bored and pull out, at which point the future of the club is completely up in the air.

Liverpool - either half-owner could pull out and mire the club in all sorts of confusion, uncertainty and debt.

Arsenal - noting that they came third, not fourth, "the theory" runs along the lines of their wage structure being insufficient to attract the best talent.

Can you see anyone breaking into the Champions League places, short of via takeover by billionaire?

The status quo is more likely to change by organisational upheaval (Champions League gets revamped when the rich clubs tell UEFA to stuff themselves, England somehow get a fifth entry...) than by anything else. Oh, and there's QPR, but if this turns out to be the breakthrough club then it rather adds weight to your theory.

did just about enough to stay in the top half

Supposedly you have remained tenth since January. The very epitome of mid-table respectability!

What are you hoping for from your team before next season?

Roy Keane to buy fifteen more players, only to discover that eleven of them don't have the right character and two of the correct four not to have Premiership talent. And yet, just a couple more seasons with a net plus two more talented, correctly-charactered players per season and we might get somewhere...

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

I guess implosion is something to hope for, although that seems a bit negative.

The Arsenal thing is a bit strange: I'm surprised they weren't prepared to pay more to accommodate Flamini, if that really was all it was. It's great to be continually shipping in fresh young talents -- but if you ship them out again just as they're getting experienced enough to start actually winning things, that seems a bit counter-productive.

I will be interested to see the kind of player who wants to come and play for Roy Keane over the summer. It certainly will call for a bit of character.

[mrlloyd.livejournal.com]

It's not like Flamini was at the top of their wage structure. I think it's more a case of Wenger deciding he wasn't as good as he thought he was. And I'm not about to set myself up against Arsene when it comes to judging talent...

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

If he made the same judgement about Ashley Cole, he certainly seems to have been right about that...

[ubiquitous-cat.livejournal.com]

I'd quite like Liverpool to buy Dean Ashton, I think he'd work great alongside Torres.

I think Liverpool need another striker and a creative midfielder who scores goals, apart from that I don't think there's much wrong with the team.

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

Are you happy with the current full-backs?

[ubiquitous-cat.livejournal.com]

That's an interesting point, I am from a defensive POV but better attacking fullbacks would find a place.

Even before Riise scored that terrible own goal I'd been saying that it was time to move him on, now, definitely.

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

Liverpool to buy Dean Ashton

Hands off!

[mrlloyd.livejournal.com]

Is he still quick enough? Obviously having spent the last few years hero worshipping an increasingly static centre forward I know pace isn't a requirement - but still, it's handy. Even if he has got Bellamy to do his running for him (when fit, if selected, if not suspended...)

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

He's not been at all quick this season -- we thought it was slow recovery from his broken leg, but now suspect he never will be. Like your chap, he relies on using his strength and wiles (and elbows) to make space around defenders. Bellamy is a great partner but I think will always be injury-prone now. I can't see any of the other speedy finishers around the league wanting to move, but maybe our youngster Fred Sears will make the grade.