undyingking (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
undyingking) wrote2008-05-15 11:56 am
undyingking) wrote2008-05-15 11:56 am
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Yay, I finally got some money from Predictify. This is the site where you make wisdom-of-crowds type predictions, and if they turn out to be correct, you get a share in the money put up by whoever it was wanted to know the answer. I've so far shared in about 35 payouts, the biggest being $12.86 for predicting Clinton's % share of the vote in the Iowa caucus, and I've made a total of $41.42 (over a period of about 6 months). Which puts me 125th in the rankings -- the most successful predictor has made over $200.
I must admit that I'm highly doubtful about the business model1, and I was wondering whether they were ever going to be able to afford to actually pay out. But they had a venture capital round to raise the money to do so. Click here if you'd like to give it a go!
In sadder news, one of my favourite webcomics, Rice Boy, has finished. I've probably talked about this before, but if you missed that, it's a fabulously strange and beautiful thing. The Wikipedia entry seems rather baffled but gives a little idea. Anyway, read it, it's great.
1 Partly beause the "game" aspect of it is somewhat broken, and when players realize this, they stop behaving in a business-helpful way. I can go into more detail about this, if anyone's interested (don't all rush at once though).
I must admit that I'm highly doubtful about the business model1, and I was wondering whether they were ever going to be able to afford to actually pay out. But they had a venture capital round to raise the money to do so. Click here if you'd like to give it a go!
In sadder news, one of my favourite webcomics, Rice Boy, has finished. I've probably talked about this before, but if you missed that, it's a fabulously strange and beautiful thing. The Wikipedia entry seems rather baffled but gives a little idea. Anyway, read it, it's great.
1 Partly beause the "game" aspect of it is somewhat broken, and when players realize this, they stop behaving in a business-helpful way. I can go into more detail about this, if anyone's interested (don't all rush at once though).
no subject
Some of the self-posted questions are pretty awful... partially bound, or vague.
Personally, I can't see anyone chipping out $500 to get a bunch of interweb users to guess the Length of the King of China's Nose.... even in cases (such as voting) where it can be useful. For a lot of things I can get the info for free by visiting Betfair/Oddschecker for an rough idea of the wisdom of the crowds (works well for politics/ents polls at least).
Course, these sites also useful for making a few quid out of the foolish occasionally (like the 4-1 odds I got on Bush winning the 2004 election at 1am UK time, based on one Al Gore state win, which he was always going to win).
no subject
I've been surprised too by how non-savvy Betfair users can be. You expect customers of terrestrial bookies to eg. over-favour England teams, but I was expecting that on Betfair that would always be balanced by savvy customers moving the other way.